During the COVID-19 pandemic, one-size-fits-all interventions have been implemented based on COVID-19 disease models, which simulate disease spread on a generalized scale, lacking specificity for communities with different Social Determinants of Health (SDOH). This approach can reveal inequities and disparities in intervention effectiveness at the local level.
The goal of this model is to provide local officials with an accessible and effective tool to make intervention decisions based on a locality’s specific and unique SDOH. The model was validated for Westchester County, NY with 84.2% accuracy. This model is being updated regularly to account for new variant data and scientific advancements.
This model is fitted with the following variant specific constants based on scientific literature:
1.
Susceptibility
2.
Mortality Rate
3.
Incubation Period
4.
Recovery Time
This model considers the following inputs:
1.
Population Size
2.
Population Density
3.
Number of Initial Infections
4.
Variant
5.
Age Demographics
6.
Racial Demographics
7.
Intervention
8.
Compliance Rate
9.
Vaccination Rate (2-Dose)
10.
Booster rate
This model produces the following outputs:
1.
Infections vs Time
2.
Deaths vs Time
3.
Total Infections
4.
Total Deaths
5.
Total Reinfections
6.
Total Breakthroughs
7.
Infection Heterogeneity Analysis
Publications:
IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Informatics and Biomedical Sciences (ICIIBMS), “Agent-Based Simulation of Social Determinants of Health for Equitable COVID-19 Intervention,” ICIIBMS conference proceedings and IEEE Xplore Digital Library, November 24 - 26, 2022, Nara, Japan
Journal of Biomedical Engineering and Biosciences (JBEB),"Agent-Based Simulation for Localized COVID-19 Intervention Decision," ISSN: 2564-4998, DOI: 10.11159/jbeb.2022.005, Volume 9 - Year 2022 - Pages 21-30
8th International Conference on Bioengineering and Biotechnology (ICBB’22), “An Agent-Based Model for Localized COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics and Intervention Impacts,” Prague, Czech Republic, August 3 – 5, 2022, Proceedings of the 8th World Congress on New Technologies (NewTech'22), ISBN: 978-1-927877-94-4
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